Safety experts have identified five behaviors as strong indicators of future crash involvement. The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) analyzed more than 580,000 individual truck driver records and identified more than 25 different violations and convictions that increased the likelihood of future crashes, five of which increased future crash likelihood by over 100%.
Five behaviors have consistently been strong indicators of future crash involvement across three or more reports. Based on a comparative assessment of ATRI's four crash predictor reports, calculating the median likelihood, the top five behaviors include:
- Reckless driving
- Failure to use/improper signal
- Past Crash
- Failure to Yield to the right-of way
- Improper or erratic lane changes
This year, the top behaviors were:
Failure to Yield to the Right-Of-Way
If a truck driver has a violation for the failure to yield to the right-of-way there is a 141% increase in the likelihood of a future crash, a nearly 40% increase from 2018 to 2022.
Failure to Use/Improper Use of a Signal
If a truck driver has a conviction for the failure to use, or improperly using, a signal there is a 116% increase in the likelihood of a future crash, a nearly 42% increase from 2018 to 2022.
Simply having a previous crash increased a truck driver's probability of having a future crash by 113%, 28% higher than previous ATRI Crash Predictor reports, according to the Predicting Truck Crash Involvement research.
If a truck driver has a violation for reckless driving there is a 104% increase in the likelihood of a future crash, a nearly 9% decrease from 2018 to 2022.
Failure to Obey Traffic Sign
If a truck driver has a conviction for the failure to obey a traffic sign there is a 85% increase in the likelihood of a future crash.
Drivers with any out-of-service violation were 29% more likely than their peers to be involved in a future crash, and drivers with a moving violation were 43% more likely to be involved in a future crash. Any conviction increased future crash likelihood by 46%.
Having a data driven model for predicting crashes is an important tool that the trucking industry and safety professionals must recognize and use. This predictor research allows companies to target and monitor those drivers whose behavior has identified them as high risk.
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